Evansville, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

282
FXUS63 KPAH 012324
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
624 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies from the Canadian wildfire smoke will continue
  today into Monday.

- There is a 20-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms this
  afternoon across southern parts of southeast Missouri,
  western Kentucky, and southern Illinois. A stray strong storm
  or two could produce gusty winds and small hail.

- Additional chances of showers and thunderstorms return
  Wednesday and continue through Saturday.

- Temperatures will trend about 5 degrees above normal the
  middle of next week with an increase in humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

A stalled front sits from about Perryville, MO to Madisonville,
KY. South of the front there is at least a little bit of
surface-based instability building in the heat of the day,
although model soundings show some drier air just off the
surface that may limit coverage. Some vertical cu are starting
to show up along the front and in southeast Missouri, so will
maintain the 20-30% pops starting about 3 pm today. Shear is
quite weak and instability is only about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
with Sfc-700 Theta-e differences about 20 K. Could see a little
bit of downburst potential but the overall severe weather risk
appears quite low. With the front stalled over the area and
moisture pooling down low a little bit of patchy fog appears
possible tonight over SEMO and WKY.

Persistent troughing over the upper midwest sets a persistent
southerly flow up over the region with a steady increase in heat
and humidity. There may be some isolate shower/storm potential
but precip looks fairly suppressed until Wednesday or so. At
that point the first of a series of modest shortwaves starts to
move just north of the region. GFS/ECMWF in the 12z guidance
suite seem to have a generally unsettled pattern with relative
peaks on Wednesday and again Friday afternoon. Mid-level lapse
rates look quite poor and instability may end up fairly limited
overall. The train of successive modest shortwaves with more
persistent troughing to the west would be more of a heavy rain
potential setup if we are watching for anything hazardous. Will
continue to monitor this period for sneaker severe weather
threat and a flash flood risk.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

There may be some shallow, patchy fog that develops tonight for
KPAH and KCGI. Otherwise VFR conditions through the end of the
period. Upper level smoke haze is denoted as SCT250. Winds
remain light and variable.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...SHAWKEY